In 23 reichen Länder ist die Staatsverschuldung bedrohlich angestiegen. Der Internationale Währungsfonds warnt dennoch vor Überreaktionen in financial markets. No reason to panic in the markets, the IMF says: Trader on Wall Street. The author of TA-Online brings an important aspect of the debt to the point.
Since the crisis in Greece is the fear of state bankruptcies of the standard repertoire of the prophets of doom. For them, hyperinflation and social unrest only a matter of time. In fact, the public debt in most industrialized countries have increased dramatically. In Greece it will amount to 2013 projected 150 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Other Club-Med countries such as Portugal and Italy, but also Ireland, there is not much better. The new studies show the IMF. Even in the UK and the U.S. debt is incredibly slow: by 2015 they will amount to 91, or 110 percent of GDP. Nevertheless, the IMF warns
before an exaggerated fear. "The markets over-estimate the risk of national bankruptcy," says one of the authors of the study, Paulo Mauro. He makes reference to eight similar examples in the past 20 years, where it has managed highly indebted countries to clean up their public finances without rescheduling. The question of how much debt a country can cope is to not answer clearly. Japan, the most indebted country in the world, has been living for decades with its debt burden. It is not there to rely on outside help, because the Japanese their debts self-finance their savings deposits. And Japan, live with it not so bad. It is true that the growth of the economy for years is modest in absolute terms and the country suffers from a mild deflation. But in Japan the population is already. Including the economic growth to the critical size to, namely, per employee, then Japan has in recent years as better than, say, Germany and almost as good as the U.S..
The national debt of the rich countries will increase even further, because it can not be directly adopted economic programs that cause them primarily, but the long-term consequences. The two economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, in their Book, "This Time is Different" the major economic crises and its consequences examined. They come to the conclusion that after a banking crisis, government debt always increases on a massive scale. "Take the average real debt in the three years after a banking crisis by 86 percent," they note. should "include the fiscal consequences, direct and indirect costs are much more expensive than the cost of the bail-out."
national debt can not belittle the long term is a certain risk of inflation can not be denied. But panic is misplaced. Despite the high debt and the expectation that they will rise again in the short term, the interest rates on U.S. government bonds on a record low. Moreover, what is the alternative? A tough austerity measures in an attempt to balance the budget has, in the 1930s led to the Great Depression. Even today the idea is absurd. Or as Martin Wolf, chief economist of the Financial Times: "I think the idea is bizarre, to bring down most of the financial system to avoid unconventional monetary policy and keep the budget deficit as low as possible - as a prerequisite for to consider rapid and sustainable recovery "
source. (Tagesanzeiger.ch / News Network)
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